Raising awareness in model-based energy scenario studies—a transparency checklist

摘要

Background\ud\udThe focus of the paper is on scenario studies that examine energy systems. This type of studies is usually based on formal energy models, from which energy policy recommendations are derived. In order to be valuable for strategic decision-making, the comprehensibility of these complex scenario studies is necessary. We aim at highlighting and mitigating the problematic issue of lacking transparency in such model-based scenario studies.\udMethods\ud\udIn the first part of the paper, the important concept of transparency in the context of energy scenarios is introduced. In the second part, we develop transparency criteria based on expert judgement. The set of selected criteria is structured into ‘General Information’, ‘Empirical Data’, ‘Assumptions’, ‘Modeling’, ‘Results’, and ‘Conclusions and Recommendations’. Based on these criteria, a transparency checklist is generated.\udResults\ud\udThe proposed transparency checklist is not intended to measure the quality of energy scenario studies, but to deliver a tool which enables authors of energy scenario studies to increase the level of transparency of their work. The checklist thus serves as a standardized communication protocol and offers guidance for interpreting these studies. A reduced and a full version of the checklist are provided. The former simply lists the transparency criteria and can be adopted by authors with ease; the latter provides details on each criterion. We also illustrate how the transparency checklist may be applied by means of examples.\udConclusions\ud\udWe argue that transparency is a necessary condition for a reproducible and credible scenario study. Many energy scenario studies are at present characterized by an insufficient level of transparency. In essence, the checklist represents a synthesizing tool for improving their transparency. The target group of this work is experts, in their role of authors and/or readers of energy scenario studies. By applying the transparency checklist, the authors of energy scenario studies signal their commitment to a high degree of transparency, in consonance with scientific standards.